"If you bring forth what is within you, what you bring forth will save you. If you do not bring forth what is within you, what you do not bring forth will destroy you."

Jun 28, 2007

Worldwide Crack Up



Posted by Bill Bonner on Jun 26th, 2007

A kiss is still a kiss. A sigh is still a sigh. And a bubble is still a bubble.

When a kiss is over, it’s over. When a bubble pops…well…that’s all she wrote! All kisses end - even the wettest “French” kisses. And so do all bubbles - even sloppy mega-bubbles of liquidity. This one will be no exception. But of course, it’s not the certainties that make life interesting…it’s the uncertainties - the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns, as Mr. Rumsfeld says. We are all born of woman and end up where all men born of women end up - dead. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun between baptism and last rites.

You’ll remember we said that this worldwide financial bubble is both worldlier, and more financial than any in history.

And, for the moment, it is very much alive. So much alive that the media can hardly keep up with it. Forbes magazine, for example, tries to estimate the wealth of the world’s richest people. But the rich don’t typically give out their balance sheets, telephone numbers and home addresses. So, there’s a fair amount of guesswork in the calculations.

But when it came to guesstimating the net worth of Stephen Schwarzman, founder of Blackstone, the Forbes crew wandered off into fiction. They put his wealth at about $2 billion. Recent filings in connection with the new Blackstone IPO show he earned that much in a single year!


In this phase of the bubble, it is as if your neighbors were throwing a wild party - and you weren’t invited. You detest them… envy them… and want to join them, all at once. A very small part of the population is having a ball; everyone else is getting restless and wondering when the noise will stop.

We wish we knew. And we’ve given up guessing.

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